The Impatience

in print · The Rate · plate iv

The borrower and the lender can have the same regard for the future and different means of reaching it. This plate develops Fisher’s meeting of impatience and opportunity through the timing of income, productive choices, and the credit market that allows consumption to be separated from investment. It asks how a rate can reconcile those choices while depending on who owns the resources and who can obtain the finance.

The rate reconciles the futures people can choose; the means of choosing were distributed before they met.The argument of this plate

The person who cannot wait need not be the person who cares least about tomorrow. He may need today's meal in order to reach it. The person who lends need not possess a steadier character; his income may arrive before his wants do. Fisher's account of interest begins to make sense when impatience is placed inside a life, with its provisions, expectations and opportunities. The rate joins two kinds of decision: how a person wishes to spread enjoyment through time, and how available resources can be transformed into a different stream of enjoyment. It brings them into relation through exchange. Yet the parties enter that exchange with particular claims already in their hands. To understand the price they reach, we must ask how those claims shape both what they want now and what they can undertake for later.

Fisher's impatience is a comparison at the margin, rather than a permanent mark beside a person's name. It asks how much an additional unit of income now matters relative to an additional unit later, given the rest of the income he expects to receive. Someone awaiting a larger income may willingly give up part of it to ease a lean present. Someone approaching retirement may willingly give up part of a prosperous present to protect a lean future. The direction can reverse without a change in moral character. Fisher expressly allows a preference for future goods and a negative degree of impatience. He therefore seeks the terms of exchange before insisting that those terms must reward the present. The positive rate is something to be explained, not a conclusion concealed inside the name of the preference.

The distinction can be seen in a small invented economy with two dates and two households. The first receives 40 units of the consumption good now and 110 next year; the second receives 100 now and 44 next year. Both rank consumption by precisely the same rule: the logarithm of present consumption plus the logarithm of next year's consumption, with neither date given a smaller weight. If they can lend and borrow freely at ten per cent, the first borrows 30 and repays 33; the second lends those 30 and receives the 33. Each then consumes 70 now and 77 later. The loan market clears. Their opposite positions in it arose from the timing of their endowments, although their preferences were identical. A list of debtors and creditors would have been a poor register of who was intrinsically patient.

Exchange changes the impatience with which the parties arrive. The borrower gains present consumption and gives up some future consumption, reducing the relative urgency of an additional unit now; the lender moves in the opposite direction. At their chosen interior positions, the additional future consumption each requires for surrendering one unit now agrees with the market's offer. This equality describes choices after adjustment. It does not mean that everyone came to market with the same wants, or that everyone consumes the same amount. The equality of consumption in the little example follows from its deliberately selected numbers and common preferences. Fisher's more general conclusion is an equality of marginal terms under the conditions that allow each person to trade to that margin.

Productive opportunity adds a choice that exchange alone cannot provide. A loan between two people rearranges their claims on what exists at each date. Planting, building or changing the use of land may change the quantities available at those dates. Fisher treats a productive asset as offering alternative income streams: a piece of land might yield early receipts from extraction, a continuing crop, or a distant return from forestry. Each has costs as well as benefits, with a particular timing. Opportunity is the possibility of choosing among these paths. The interest rate enters because a larger later receipt may or may not compensate for the early receipts forgone. To compare the paths is already to ask what the present can become and what the waiting will cost.

With sufficiently free access to credit, the most valuable productive choice can be separated from the owner's preferred time to consume. An owner may choose the project with the greatest present value and borrow against later receipts if he wants more income early, or lend early receipts if he wants more late. He can obtain his preferred timing from the market while retaining the gain from the more valuable project. That is the force of Fisher's separation. It depends on the same borrowing and lending rate, access in the required amounts, and the certainty assumed at this stage of his theory. Under those conditions, an impatient shareholder need not demand an inferior short project merely because he wants an early payment. The market can supply the timing without sacrificing the project's value.

The person unable to borrow cannot perform that separation by wishing for it. A promising orchard may leave its owner without enough to live on while the trees grow. The largest present value on paper does not feed the household before the crop is ready. In the invented example, if the first household cannot borrow at all and has no other way to move consumption across dates, it remains at 40 now and 110 later. Its marginal willingness to exchange is then 2.75 future units for one present unit, far above the offered 1.10. The gap survives because the trade is unavailable. A theory that equates every marginal preference with the rate while ignoring the constraint would mistake exclusion for a chosen position. Fisher himself recognizes the owner who is rich in land and poor in present means.

The market can reconcile the choices people are able to make while leaving the distribution of that ability untouched.

Ownership enters the determination of the rate through these available choices. A claim on an early income can support a loan; a claim on a remote income can create a reason to borrow. Resources in the hands of people with different spending aims generate different offers at a given price. Ownership of a productive asset can also carry access to the opportunities it affords, while finance can determine whether those opportunities are usable. Redistribution can therefore alter the bids and offers which an equilibrium rate must reconcile. The direction requires the circumstances to be specified. In the little economy with identical log preferences and unrestricted credit, redistribution alone leaves the rate determined by total resources at the two dates; with different preferences or binding constraints, that neutrality need not survive. Inequality has no universal interest-rate coefficient concealed in its definition.

Fisher's synthesis determines the rate together with the choices it influences. At a trial rate, each owner chooses among productive opportunities, then offers to lend or asks to borrow to obtain a preferred consumption path. If desired lending exceeds desired borrowing, that trial rate fails the market-clearing condition; if the reverse holds, it fails in the other direction. The candidate must satisfy the choices and the clearing together. This mutual dependence is coherent when the equations express different restrictions: the available transformations, the desired uses, and the balance of claims. It would be circular to derive the rate merely by dividing an income by a capital value already calculated with that same rate. It is not circular merely because changing a price changes the behavior that helps determine it.

Neither a fortune's size nor its apparent safety supplies a shortcut to those choices. A large capital value can represent a declining income that its owner wants to replace, or a growing income against which he wants to borrow. The timing matters. So does the location of uncertainty. Someone fearing a loss of distant earnings may save more from a secure present; someone facing a temporary loss now may seek immediate relief. Fisher distinguishes these possibilities rather than treating every uncertainty as an additional preference for the present. The rate on a particular risky promise also raises a separate question about payment across possible outcomes. One number labeled impatience cannot silently stand for poverty, default risk, changing income and a taste for earlier enjoyment all at once.

The rate which coordinates those decisions has accomplished something, but it has not judged the original distribution of claims. An equilibrium may leave each person doing the best he can with what he owns and the trades open to him. That statement can coexist with a severe inequality in what each is able to obtain. The model's achievement is to explain a set of terms under specified circumstances, including an assignment of resources and opportunities. Whether that assignment is justified requires reasons beyond the fact that the resulting market clears. The borrower may gain from the trade and still have good grounds to question the conditions that made his need urgent or his alternatives narrow.

Impatience and opportunity therefore reach the market already shaped by a society's distribution of means. Their meeting need involve no single person choosing the rate, yet it remains conditional on who can offer, who must ask, and who can turn an opportunity into an undertaking. Fisher gives these choices a common language without requiring that we call their starting point fair. His account also leaves us with a harder productive question. The future receipts used to value a machine come from a real process, but the machine's value changes with the rate used to discount them. The Detour follows that distinction into production. For now, the rate reconciles the waiting people can supply with the futures they can pursue; its precision does not erase the history of their command over either.